Last year I wrote a couple of pieces on Nepal in which I made some predictions about how the Maoists would reach an accommodation with the Nepalese ruling class. I was quite chuffed because a couple of pro CPN-ML websites slagged me off for pontificating from an ivory tower in London. They can’t have seen the inside of château Mac Uaid. But at least they haven’t tried to shoot me yet. Let’s see if I was right.

The Times newspaper (1/1206) reported that the Maoists have agreed to confine their fighters to armed camps and have all their weapons locked away by the United Nations. The fighters will have to rely on handouts from the government to survive. As a quid pro quo the Nepalese army will lock up the same number of weapons and confine its troops to barracks until after elections later this year. The paper doesn’t say if the army will discontinue its practice of abducting and murdering people nor how much weaponry the troops will retain.

The Times also reports that the CPN-ML wants its fighters to be absorbed into the Nepalese army. This is not the traditional method of overthrowing the repressive apparatus of a reactionary state. It is a good way of getting jobs for a lot of young armed men with a fairly low political level and few skills other than waging guerrilla war. The paper also comments that many of the fighters are not eligible to join the army because they are not yet 18. And you thought child soldiers was just an African phenomenon.

Last year the Maoists had brought Kathmandu to a standstill with strikes and demonstrations. They were mobilising thousands of people and bringing them into conflict with the police. It looked as if power was theirs for the taking. The BBC reports that there were more street protests and strikes in December. This time they were called because the government appointed ambassadors and other high level positions without consulting them the CPN. They were using mass pressure to get plum jobs in state apparatus.

The CPN-ML has agreed to take 73 seats in an interim parliament of 330. The assembly that will emerge after elections later this year will decide on whether or not to retain the monarchy. This is the monarchy that looked like it was days away from being forced to flee the country.

Party leader Prachanda says that he wants control of the Health, Education and Land Reform ministries in order that his organisation can start to implement parts of its programme. He adds that he will even accept a parliamentary decision to retain the monarchy.

From ultra-leftism to social democracy in six months. That is some shift. It looks like I was right in the essentials.