Here’s a piece that missed the copy deadline for the bumper summer issue of Socialist Resistance. Patrick Scott writes on Wales after the election.

Wales has long played a prominent role in the history of the Labour Party. Way back in the 1900 general election Merthyr Tydfil elected Kier Hardie to Parliament, one of only two MPs elected for the newly formed Labour Representation Committee. Later in that same decade the South Wales Miners’ Federation was to withdraw its support for the Liberals in favour of the Labour Party. A major boost for Labour at the time as Federation sponsored MPs in South Wales now formed part of the Parliamentary Labour Party. Consistently throughout the course of the 20^th century the industrial heartlands of Wales and of South Wales in particular have formed part of Labour’s core constituency. Where until recently at least the proverbial donkey could win an election in as long as it stood as a Labour candidate.

The 2007 Welsh Assembly elections though may one day come to be seen as the beginning of the end for the Labour Party in Wales. Labour’s share of the vote, 32.2% in the constituencies and 29.6% in the regional list was its lowest share of the Welsh vote in any election since 1918 when the Labour Party was still in its formative days. The reasons for this decline in the Welsh Labour vote are predictable enough. In Wales as elsewhere the working class under Labour has continued to suffer from more privatisation and the decline of as well as increased marketisation of public services in the NHS and elsewhere. And of course Tony Blair, once Labour’s greatest asset he now became the party’s biggest liability given the mass unpopularity of the war against the Iraqi people. But even though Labour won only 26 Assembly seats out of 60[1] it appears to have hung on to power for the time being as a minority administration being because of a divided opposition. What of forces to the left of Labour? John Marek of the virtually moribund Forward Wales lost his seat in Wrexham to Labour where he actually stood as an independent, this was probably Labour’s only good result in the election. Both the Communist Party of Britain and the Socialist Labour Party contested all the Welsh regional lists whilst Respect and the Socialist Party (standing as Socialist Alternative) contested some of the South Wales regional lists. As in Scotland though the left of Labour vote was poor, not reaching beyond one or two per cent. Partially because of the political fragmentation but equally because none of these formations were seen as being politically credible by those who wanted to support a left alternative to New Labour..

One result that might provide some cause for optimism was Trish Law (widow of the deceased independent Labour MP Peter Law) retaining her former spouse’s seat in Blanaeu Gwent. Trish Law may have stood on a solidly ‘Old Labour’ platform with all the political problems and limitations that entails. Nevertheless after eighteen years of Conservative and a further ten years of New Labour government that can come across as quite radical in today’s political climate. Furthermore despite the defeats and batterings suffered over the last three decades the labour movement has not suffered as badly in Wales as elsewhere in Britain. Recent government statistics on trade union membership for example reveal that 36% of Welsh workers are union members, compared to only 27% in England.

What though is most problematic is the Plaid Cymru vote and what that represents. Plaid’s core vote comes from the Welsh language speakers in the largely rural areas of North and Central Wales. Geographically speaking the core electoral base of Plaid Cymru forms part of the rural hinterlands of Britain where the Liberal Democrats have also built up an electoral base. As such these are areas where local labour movement organisation has been traditionally weak and this has allowed minor parties rather than Labour (whether the Liberal Democrats nationally, Plaid Cymru in Wales, or to a lesser extent the SNP in Scotland) have at times been able to position themselves as a credible opposition to the Conservatives. Plaid Cymru has never defined itself as socialist or as party of the left or working class and is never likely to do so. Even so given that the Labour has moved so far to the right it has come to be seen by many traditional ‘Old Labour’ supporters in Wales as a credible alternative to New Labour. This does some basis in reality, for example all three of Plaid’s Westminster MPs have endorsed John McDonnell’s Trade Union Freedom Bill. Unlike its Scottish counterparts in the SNP there is a substantial left wing within Plaid Cymru. For example Leanne Wood, a Plaid Cymru Assembly member is a committed socialist and republican who was famously ejected from the Assembly for referring to the Queen as Mrs Windsor. Plaid Cymru is politically broad enough to contain within its ranks the likes of Leanne Wood who is clearly to the left of any of the Labour members of the Assembly. At the same time though the leadership of Plaid were prepared to enter into tripartite talks after the election with the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives to with the view to forming a tripartite administration to govern Wales. Four Plaid Assembly members including Leanne Wood did issue a statement dissenting with the majority of their colleagues over the coalition talks. Nevertheless these talks only seem to have failed because the Liberal Democrats pulled out. Even so everything appears to remain up in the air politically. A politically discredited Labour Party limps on as a minority administration in Wales. Talks though continue between the Conservatives, Liberal democrats, and the majority of Plaid Assembly members to see if they can form an alternative administration. Labour on the other hand now appears to be wooing Plaid Cymru with proposals of a referendum on whether the Welsh Assembly should have the same powers as the Scottish Parliament. The point though for those socialists in Plaid Cymru is how long can they continue to remain in the same political party with people who appear quite happy to form a coalition with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats?
Patrick Scott