In mid May the Brazilian Environmental Minister Marina Silva resigned without giving any reason in public. One reason why was hinted at by Denise Hamu, secretary-general of the Worldwide Fund for Nature in Brazil who commented: “the environmental area was relegated to no priority. She got tired of the thankless struggle,” It’s not normally the sort of thing that would be of great interest to anyone outside Brazil, nor probably even to most Brazilians. Now without wanting to do a Sting it’s worth pointing out that what happens in the Amazon rainforest is likely to have a big effect on climate change globally.
While England may be rubbish at finding a decent Eurovision entry the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research has what is probably the most accurate climate simulation model in the world. It is currently predicting that by 2100 most of the Amazon Basin will have lost its trees to shrubs, grasses or savannah. The process of rainforest collapse should become evident by 2040 and will conclude with half of what is now covered with rainforest changing into desert. The photos illustrate the difference and it is much more than just an aesthetic one. It will affect the entire population of South America fairly quickly and very directly and the medium term results with be felt by those of us who plan to be around in 30 years or so. Only this site’s small but enthusiastic band of Canadian readers may feel some benefit. It’ll be horrible for the rest of us.
A little bit of science is necessary at this point. Most of the Amazon’s rainfall is caused by transpiration – the water released by plants when they open their stomata to acquire CO2. As CO2 levels rise globally 
the stomata are open for shorter periods and so release less water vapour which reduces the rainfall. The scientists predict a reduction of around 20% To compound the problem additional warming will be caused by a persistent El Nino like climate itself caused by global warming. Add these two factors together and the best guess is that the current 5mm per day average rainfall across the basin will drop to 2mm by 2100 – except in northeastern Amazonia where it will plummet to almost zero.
Most of us have now absorbed the idea that carbon is stored in trees and soil. As the vegetation dies and decomposes it will start to release 35 gigatonnes of CO2 and another 150 gigatonnes will no longer be stored in the soil. Temperatures in the Amazon will rise by 10C. This pattern is likely to be repeated in other rainforest across the world.
The Brazilian military dictatorship described the Amazon as the “green frontier” and encouraged a lot of capitalists to get very rich from hyper exploiting it. In a recent statement to a Brazilian newspaper Silva points the finger at the governor of Mato State claiming that he has made a fortune from destroying the rainforest. Blairo Maggi (and I didn’t make that up) is also one of the world’s biggest soy producers and to grow soy in the Amazon you have to chop down trees, release carbon, reduce rainfall and start to make a desert within 30 years. Capitalist logic! Wouldn’t it be great
Silva’s successor Carlos Minc is the sort of man who like to cut through red tape and apparently set a local record for granting building permits for a petrochemical plant in Rio state – just the sort of treehugger you’d want to preserve a forest that is one of the principal climate regulators on the planet.
Liam redux 
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