There are some things you can say with absolute certainty about octopuses.image

  • They live in water.
  • They should have eight arms.
  • They are very tasty in salad, especially the babies.
  • They know nothing of football.
  • They have no understanding of the nation state.
  • They cannot predict the future.

Until Wednesday morning I would have thought all these assertions were uncontroversial, apart from maybe the one about the nation state. Hell no! Within thirty minutes, to my certain knowledge, the good sense of millions of viewers and listeners of British and French radio and TV had been insulted with reports of “Paul” the octopus.

The BBC, which sometimes moonlights as a source of serious news, reported that before his home country played England “Paul the octopus chose a mussel from a jar with the German flag on it ahead of one in a similar jar bearing the cross of St George.” By such means he predicted the winner.

The Daily Telegraph has an account of him pulling off the same trick before the Germany Spain match.

Let’s deconstruct this.

Even the smartest of aquatic creatures don’t name their offspring after early Christian writers.

Television sets don’t work underwater and the refraction through the glass and water would prevent “Paul” from having a clear view of what’s happening on screen when watching football.

Without access to a really expensive TV sports subscription he wouldn’t be able to watch all the major games that Germany’s opponents play. That would be difficult because you need money to have satellite TV and there are no paying jobs for octopuses anywhere. Of course there would be in a workers’ state.

If underwater creatures really had the ability to look into the future they would have killed the first bugger to move out of the water because they’d have known that it would evolve into a species with bloody big trawlers that would hunt many of them to the verge of extinction.

Just maybe “Paul” the football predicting octopus is the harbinger of a new epoch of life on this planet in which species talks unto species and the barriers of time and space are eliminated. Or maybe a bunch of offensively lazy journalists with no grasp of how statistics work should not be allowed anywhere near an outlet.

20 responses to “Cephalopod seers”

  1. What ist!name caliamari.Spanish defence had as many tentacles,defence and attack.Whoe!s off to the buckie.

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  2. It would be more impressive if he selected the eventual winner from ALL the competitors at the start of the knock out stage.
    Then, they could promise him a new identity and release into the wild if he could pick the winner of the Grand National.
    Somewhere far from the nearest Taverna, where he could escape from the paparazzi in a cloud of ink.

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  3. It would be more impressive! Give a Cephalopod a break!

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  4. I for one would like to know how many octopuses predicted the wrong result. Surely its only newsworthy if Paul is the only correct octopus?

    Also, did anyone catch the exchange between the commentators yesterday:

    “You’ve probably all heard of Paul the octopus, who has predicted a Spanish victory.”
    “I’m not sure everyone will have heard of it. There’s a couple who have lives.”

    The latter was, of course, Mark Lawrenson.

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  5. Do your kids vote.

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  6. Although given the choice between Mark Lawrenson and a cephalopod as a football pundit, I’d pick the octopus over the Scouser every time.

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  7. What’s got 8 legs, no spine, and gives clueless, uninformed opinions about football matches?

    The Match of the Day panel.

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  8. Lawrenson has admitted being wrong several times, mostly when the first look at a refereeing decision makes him certain of its wrongness and the second causes an immediate retraction, something I don’t necessarily expect from Paul.
    The back page of the Guardian has a joke from their fans’ network: What’s got eight arms, no spine, and makes wild predictions about football matches? The Match of the Day panel. Tsh!

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  9. My favourite Lawrenson line came during an Arsenal match, as one of the midfield overhit a long pass aimed at Arjen Robben. The other commentator said “Robben was never going to get that, was he Mark?”

    Pause

    “I don’t think Batman would have got that.”

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  10. Is your piece serious? If so, I’d hate to be stuck in conversation with you for any length of time, you po-faced misery guts.

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  11. daveinstokenewington Avatar
    daveinstokenewington

    Just as well there isn’t much paid work for octopuses. Just think, with eight arms they could do the work of four journalists.

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  12. Is it serious Doug? That’s my little secret but you’re right about the “po-faced misery guts” bit.

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  13. Careful with the prolier than stuff, chjh. If it was an Arsenal game, it could only have involved Robben if Chelsea were playing them. Robben never has been an Arsenal player.

    As for Paul, my only thought is Octopus 1, Angela Merkel 0. His prescience is no worse that most of what passes for punditry either on TV or some of the blogs. It always mystifies me how some see a virtue in attempting to predict the result of a game of infinite variables.

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  14. Perhaps we can ask the octupus if the Left will unite or is that also a forgone conclusion!!!!

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  15. “It always mystifies me how some see a virtue in attempting to predict the result of a game of infinite variables.”

    In fact, the Final will be between the two teams that SHOULD be there according to the ratings. A computer programme could have predicted it.

    The punditry and speculation is just quite fun.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings

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  16. I am appalled by the imperialist lap-doggery that obsesses over a German sucker, and ignores Manny the Parakeet.

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  17. Cheers Prianikoff, You may not have realized that you just proved my point…..

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  18. Maybe that’s why octopus live at the bottom of the sea – they need peace and quiet to predict the football results

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  19. Perhaps the discussion should be about the merits of the algorithm used in the ELO ranking system?
    It’s certainly performed better than the FIFA rankings, which indicated that Brazil would be in the final.

    However, I think the more pertinent question will be whether winning an ugly game is better than being a beautiful loser.

    Mark Van Bommel’s comment that “We will have to break their midfield and stop their playmakers from playing”, has a slightly ominous ring to it.

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  20. prianikoff –

    1. It’s performed better at this World Cup at predicting the finalists, because the two teams involved have performed exceptionally well recently while their previous competition form has not been so good.

    2. http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/v/vincelomba161268.html

    3. It’s not quite like this.

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